今年十月底的长沙之行,使我偶然读到了一则关于美国可望于2008年生产飞行汽车的新闻。由于自己曾经长期从事智能车的研发,加上新闻中的车名居然叫“飞跃”,与自己同名,所以引起我的兴趣和回忆,故在机场和飞机上写了《从StarCar到飞跃车:汽车飞机引起的回忆》的杂文。
,我在波士顿开IEEE TAB战略规划会议。会议厅外,特为理事们设了IEEE的旗帜性刊物《Spectrum》的展台,宣传杂志的工作。休会期间我随便查了查今年的《Spectrum》,一月的“Winners & Losers 专刊引起了我的兴趣。从2004年起,IEEE每年都评出科技领域的五项Winners 和五项Losers。今年的第二项Loser就是MIT学生创办的公司Terrafugia设计的飞行汽车 “Transition”, 相关评论的标题是:“Grounded: No happy landings for latest twist on sci-fi staple”, 简介为:“This protean may fly, but on land it’s an accident waiting to happen.” Transition面临的问题是:It has been proven to be virtually impossible to craft a light, agile plane that also handles well on the road. Transition的设计重量已近轻型飞机的上限,但却是目前*轻的四轮轿车重量的一半。结果是空中飞行的性能可能还凑合,只是在路上,“A strong gust of wind could cause the Transition to fishtail”,而且它折起来的翅 “would be easy targets for fender benders”。结论是:尽管本世纪已有许多类似的梦想,但“None have risen above the status of historical footnote”,*后都是空干一场。
这不会是国内报道的“飞跃”车吧?网上一查,果然是!可无人提出过类似的怀疑。再按关键字“飞行汽车”查Google,竟有1,520,000条,铺天盖地,都给人一种“飞行汽车”已到家门口的感觉。国内突然的飞行汽车“热”,可能是MIT的《Technology Review》今年10月10日关于Transition的报道:“Flying Car About to Take Off? An aeronautic startup looks to complete a prototype of its roadworthy aircraft within a year ” 引起的。MIT的报道很正面,许多人对报道和Transition的可行性提出了疑问,但Terrafugia也都认真对待,给予答复。问题是《Technology Review》经常写一些biased的文章,包括对中国一些研发不着边际的评论。因此虽然每期的电子版都发给我,却很少认真看,所以我写杂文时不知道Transition与“飞跃”车之间的联系。
MIT《Technology Review》关于Transition的报道,其开头为:“In 1918, long before George Jetson commuted to Spacely Space Sprockets, the U.S. Patent Office issued Felix Longobardi the first patent for a vehicle capable of both driving on roads and flying through the air. But given all the impractical prototypes built since Longobardi's original whimsy, history suggests that any vehicle design combining these two modes of transport will be a commercial failure: aero-auto hybrids always seem to result in a compromise that serves both functions poorly. ”看来空中飞行与路上行驶,其要求是对立的,再加上经济性限制,这就是过去众多尝试失败的原因。难道Transition会是一个例外吗?细读MIT和IEEE两篇文章之后,我不得不更相信IEEE 《Spectrum》的预言。
从网上这些报道中,得知世界上许多国家和个人都在研制飞行汽车,五花八门。除了Transition,美国**的还有加州大学Davis分校退休教授Moller的“没有翅膀也能飞行”汽车MX-400,德州LaBiche Aerospace的FSC-1,Alabama州Macro的空中飞车SkyRider X2R。其实加拿大的Avro Canada公司在冷战初期就秘密为美国军方建造了两架“概念验证机”飞行车(VZ-9-AV Avrocar),原理是柯恩达效应,实为一款垂直起降飞机,每部造价约一千万美元。由于无法解决的推力与稳定性问题,1961年美军终止了这项秘密计划。以色列的Rafi Yoeli也声称已成功驾驶一辆尚处于研发阶段的X-Hawk“飞车”飞离地面,同时希望把它在2010年之前推向国际市场。荷兰公司PAL-V Europe BV宣称已经设计出三个车轮的飞行车PAL-V (Personal Air and Land Vehicle), 查了一下公司好象就是一个三人的公司。*玄*激动人心的是“俄前试飞员发明飞行汽车,有望成为世界首富”。据说:“这种飞行汽车外形与普通小型直升机和过去的潜水艇相似,操作方式与驾驶普通汽车相似。它不仅能像汽车一样行驶,还可以飞行。目前,世界各国专家也在竞相研究这种可飞行汽车,而一旦扎特斯维提前获得可飞行汽车的专利权,他将在一夜暴富,资产将超过世界首富比尔盖茨。”在此我预祝这位俄前试飞员“Good Luck”。
因为Moller是位教授,感情上更愿相信他,加上他的SkyCar居然由**的豪华产品零售商妮梦-马科斯集团公司(Neiman Marcus Group Inc) 的Catalog推销,给人以菜场卖飞机的感觉,就查了一下。结果大吃一惊,他的公司Moller International, Inc (MI), 已被The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (Commission) 起诉,主要原因是:MI filed with the Commission a Form 10-SB registration statement, which contained misleading claims about patents held by the company relating to Skycar technology。比如(标号系起诉书原文所有):
For example, the Skycar, according to Moller, would allow any person to travel at speeds over 400 miles-per-hour in the uncluttered airspace above the roadways for about the same price as a luxury automobile. In MI investor newsletters, Moller projected that 10,000 Skycars would be sold by the end of 2002.
In reality, the Skycar was and still is a very early developmental-stage prototype that has no meaningful flight testing, proof of aeronautical feasibility, or proven commercial viability.
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In reality, MI had virtually no revenue, had never sold a single Skycar, and never came close to meeting the stringent initial listing requirements for either the Nasdaq or the NYSE.
Moller also routinely promised investors that the company's share price would increase sharply following the purported listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq, at one point predicting success similar to that of Microsoft.
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As late as May 2002, in MI's initial Form 10-SB filing, the company again falsely claimed that it owned 11 domestic patents.
In fact, eight of those eleven patents were expired patents in which MI had no ownership interest. For the remaining three patents, MI has ultimately acknowledged they have no value.
2002年卖出1万部Skycar?像微软那样成功?11个专利8个过期3个自己都说根本没用?听起来完全是个骗子公司。Moller International的通讯里列举了许多新闻报道、TV采访、名人的话来支持他们,看来中外无别,只是它离自己许诺的“微软”式的公司差得太远。新闻的背后,却是如此的故事!不过MI在中国肯定还有市场,至少它还在OTC上交易。顺手一查,52周股价*高1.25美元,*低26美分,换成人民币,还算不错了。MI许诺的产品时限一延再误,今年又说是2008初,没几天了。我的心愿再好,读了这些材料,也不敢祝他们Good Luck。
Moller引用的名人Quote中有汽车之父福特的话:“Mark my word: A combination airplane and motorcar is coming. You may smile. But it will come...”。其实,福特在1928年就试飞了他的“天空小汽车”,不幸的是一个“驾驶员”坠机身亡,“天空小汽车”便被禁止生产了。尽管如此,我还是坚信这是一个必须研究的领域,福特的话将来也一定能够兑现。
*后,附上网上摘来的三段文字,与君同知共享,也算是结束语:
“美国普罗维登斯(罗得岛**)布朗大学的科学家们通过对蝙蝠的飞行的空气动力学原理进行深入研究后得出结论称,蝙蝠的飞行是动物界***的,鸟类和其它昆虫的飞行都无法与蝙蝠相媲美。因此科学家们正考虑利用蝙蝠的飞行原理来打造未来超级飞行汽车。”
“有了梦想,生活才不会乏味。尽管我们也知道,等到飞行汽车普及到了北京,估计交警们早就装备上了导弹。没准那时候限速更严,罚款更多呢。”
“你想买一辆飞行汽车吗?再等100年吧!”